ABSTRACT
This book offers a lively account of the humanitarian, economic, societal, and planetwide impacts of the pandemics, the COVID-19 pandemic included, which are traced back to as early as the 14th century plague pandemic. Placing the pandemics along with other globally shared resources, such as global warming, AI singularity, and high-risk physics experiments, each of the nine chapters of the book discusses the global health crises from a variety of unique standpoints, including infectious diseases, economics, governance, and public health. Based on the historical records of past pandemics and the rich data from the COVID-19 pandemic, a conceptual framework is presented for the economics of pandemics as a globally shared experience. This book aims to critically examine salient features in the global responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, including global governance, lockdowns, radical movements, and mRNA vaccines. The book will be a valuable resource to students, researchers, and policymakers who are working in the fields of environmental economics, global-scale public goods, and health economics. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.
ABSTRACT
In this study, a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model that evaluates two important therapeutic measures of the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccination of susceptible and treatment for infected people who are in quarantine, is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Some of the fundamental properties of the model system including existence and uniqueness, positivity, and invariant region of solutions are proved under a certain meaningful set. The model exhibits two equilibrium points: disease-free and endemic equilibrium points under certain conditions. The basic reproduction number, R0, is derived via the next-generation matrix approach, and the dynamical behavior of the model is explored in detail. The analytical analysis reveals that the disease-free equilibrium solution is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when the associated basic reproduction number is less than unity which indicates that COVID-19 dies out in the population. Also, the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated basic reproduction number exceeds a unity which implies that COVID-19 establishes itself in the population. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is computed to identify the most dominant parameters for the spreading out as well as control of infection and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Furthermore, we extended the considered model to optimal control problem system by introducing two time-dependent variables that represent the educational campaign to susceptibles and continuous treatment for quarantined individuals. Finally, some numerical results are illustrated to supplement the analytical results of the model using MATLAB ode45. © 2023 Alemzewde Ayalew et al.
ABSTRACT
Measles is a highly contagious respiratory disease of global public health concern. A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with Crowley–Martin incidence function to account for the inhibitory effect due to susceptible and infected individuals and vaccination is formulated and analyzed using standard dynamical systems methods. The basic reproduction number is computed. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, the disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable. Using the Center Manifold theory, the model exhibits a forward bifurcation, which implies that the endemic equilibrium is also globally asymptotically stable. To determine the optimal choice of intervention measures to mitigate the spread of the disease, an optimal control problem is formulated (by introducing a set of three time-dependent control variables representing the first and second vaccine doses, and the palliative treatment) and analyzed using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. To account for the scarcity of measles vaccines during a major outbreak or other causes such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a Holling type-II incidence function is introduced at the model simulation stage. The control strategies have a positive population level impact on the evolution of the disease dynamics. Graphical results reveal that when the mass-action incidence function is used, the number of individuals who received first and second vaccine dose is smaller compared to the numbers when the Crowley–Martin incidence-type function is used. Inhibitory effect of susceptibles tends to have the same effect on the population level as the Crowley–Martin incidence function, while the control profiles when inhibitory effect of the infectives is considered have similar effect as when the mass-action incidence is used, or when there is limitation in the availability of measles vaccines. Missing out the second measles vaccine dose has a negative impact on the initial disease prevalence. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.
ABSTRACT
In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model related to media coverage and exogenous reinfections is established to explore the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next generation matrix method. First, the existence of equilibrium points is investigated, and different kinds of equilibrium points indicate that the disease may disappear, or exist that result in different quantity of susceptible individuals, pre-symptomatic infected individuals and symptomatic infected individuals. The stability of the equilibria is discussed by a geometric approach, and it is found that controlling reproduction number to be lower than 1 is not sufficient for eradication of COVID-19. Second, transcritical bifurcation is explored, and it is found that improving the ratio of exogenous reinfection may lead to backward bifurcation under poor medical conditions, which indicates that two endemic equilibrium points appear. Third, to investigate the influence of parameters on the basic reproduction, sensitivity analysis is done to choose relatively sensitive parameters, and the parameters for treatment and media coverage are selected. An optimal control model is established to balance the treatment and media awareness. By exploring the existence and the uniqueness of the optimal control solution, the optimal control strategies are given. Finally, we run numerical simulations to verify the theoretical analysis on actual data of China, and the data from the four different states of India is used for forecasting the situation of infected individuals in a short period. It is found by the simulation that the co-function of treatment and media coverage results in the reduced number of infectious individuals. [ FROM AUTHOR]
ABSTRACT
The problem of state observation in incommensurate fractional order systems has been poorly studied. Currently some observers that have been proposed are based on a copy of the system, which causes them to be highly dependent on the system parameters, additionally they are redundant (estimate variables that are available). So this paper proposes a novel fractional observer against parametric uncertainties for a certain type of incommensurate fractional order systems. The fractional observer design is based on a property concerning observability in incommensurate fractional order systems which allows us to construct the observer only considering the available output and its fractional derivatives. On the other hand, the convergence analysis of the observation error is carried out using a particular approach of fractional order systems related to the Global Mittag-Leffler boundedness. We prove that there is a compact set GMLA (Globally Mittag-Leffler Attractive, according to Definition 4) where the system that represents the observation error dynamics is attractive and we also prove that the observation error is uniformly bounded. Additionally, the fractional observer is model-free i.e., a system copy is not required, this gives robustness in spite of parametric uncertainties and it is also reduced order therefore one observer must be designed for each variable that we want to estimate consequently the observer is non-redundant (no estimation of variables that are already available). Moreover, our proposed fractional observer can be designed for commensurate fractional order systems and we also show that if we consider integer derivative order, the proposed fractional observer presents certain properties. Finally, in order to show the effectiveness of the proposed fractional observer, an incommensurate fractional order Rössler hyperchaotic system is considered as a numerical example and an incommensurate fractional model of the COVID-19 pandemic as a real-world application.
ABSTRACT
In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model related to media coverage and exogenous reinfections is established to explore the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next generation matrix method. First, the existence of equilibrium points is investigated, and different kinds of equilibrium points indicate that the disease may disappear, or exist that result in different quantity of susceptible individuals, pre-symptomatic infected individuals and symptomatic infected individuals. The stability of the equilibria is discussed by a geometric approach, and it is found that controlling reproduction number to be lower than 1 is not sufficient for eradication of COVID-19. Second, transcritical bifurcation is explored, and it is found that improving the ratio of exogenous reinfection may lead to backward bifurcation under poor medical conditions, which indicates that two endemic equilibrium points appear. Third, to investigate the influence of parameters on the basic reproduction, sensitivity analysis is done to choose relatively sensitive parameters, and the parameters for treatment and media coverage are selected. An optimal control model is established to balance the treatment and media awareness. By exploring the existence and the uniqueness of the optimal control solution, the optimal control strategies are given. Finally, we run numerical simulations to verify the theoretical analysis on actual data of China, and the data from the four different states of India is used for forecasting the situation of infected individuals in a short period. It is found by the simulation that the co-function of treatment and media coverage results in the reduced number of infectious individuals.
ABSTRACT
Introduction: The present study aims to assess the knowledge and attitude among the patients attending a dental hospital in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey was conducted among the general population from July 2020 to September 2020. It included 205 patients attending the outpatient department of Kalinga Institute of Dental Sciences, Bhubaneswar. A self-structured 17 item questionnaire regarding antibiotic resistance was used to assess the knowledge and attitude of the patients. Data were entered into Microsoft Excel sheet and analyzed using SPSS version 25.0. Results: The present study comprised 47.3% males and 52.7% females. Comparison of the knowledge and attitude domain scores was made across the educational levels of the participants and a significant difference was observed in the attitude domain scores. Conclusion: The present study stresses on the dire need for educating the general public about the rational use of antibiotics, thereby reducing further abuse leading to a global problem. The following core competencies are addressed in this article: Medical knowledge, Systems-based practice, Practice-based learning and improvement.
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In this paper, an improved COVID-19 model is given to investigate the influence of treatment and media awareness, and a non-linear saturated treatment function is introduced in the model to lay stress on the limited medical conditions. Equilibrium points and their stability are explored. Basic reproduction number is calculated, and the global stability of the equilibrium point is studied under the given conditions. An object function is introduced to explore the optimal control strategy concerning treatment and media awareness. The existence, characterization and uniqueness of optimal solution are studied. Several numerical simulations are given to verify the analysis results. Finally, discussion on treatment and media awareness is given for prevention and treatment of COVID-19.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communications Media , Epidemics , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/prevention & control , Epidemics/prevention & control , Humans , QuarantineABSTRACT
In the current era, information dissemination is more convenient, the harm of rumors is more serious than ever. At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 is a biochemical weapon made by a laboratory, which has caused a very bad impact on the world. It is very important to control the spread of these untrue statements to reduce their impact on people's lives. In this paper, a new rumor spreading model with comprehensive interventions (background detection, public education, official debunking, legal punishment) is proposed for qualitative and quantitative analysis. The basic reproduction number with important biological significance is calculated, and the stability of equilibria is proved. Through the optimal control theory, the expression of optimal control pairs is obtained. In the following numerical simulation, the optimal control under 11 control strategies are simulated. Through the data analysis of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and infection averted ratio of all control strategies, if we consider the control problem from different perspectives, we will get different optimal control strategies. Our results provide a flexible control strategy for the security management department.